Global development
As countries transition towards better socioeconomic conditions, their incidence rates of several cancer types also increase. The improvement in socioeconomic conditions is associated with an increased adoption of unhealthy behaviours, which is particularly pronounced among the most disadvantaged social groups, but it may not always be associated with a concomitant strengthening of the health system and cancer control measures.
Documenting, assessing, and interpreting the global distribution of cancer is important to inform future projections and priorities for cancer avoidance and prevention policies worldwide.
Description of the work
The aim of this work area is to understand how developmental transitions are linked to cancer and cancer inequalities, the profile and clustering patterns of specific cancer types worldwide, and the underlying role of national and macroeconomic characteristics. The work relies on developing appropriate analytical methodologies and applying them to high-quality surveillance data.
The specific objectives are:
a. Document and describe cancer transitions according to levels of national socioeconomic development;
b. Map geographical, socioeconomic, and type-specific clustering patterns of cancer;
c. Assess the role of national correlates and specific macroeconomic and domestic factors (e.g. national expenditure on health, availability of medications) on cancer outcomes and cancer inequalities;
d. Clarify the epidemiological features of the global cancer distribution;
e. Quantify the fraction of cancers that are theoretically avoidable;
f. Develop indicators of national socioeconomic development that are suitable to be linked with indicators of cancer outcomes;
g. Develop and apply suitable methodologies (e.g. ordination methods, dissimilarity measures, principal component analysis [PCA] and non-metric multidimensional scaling [NMDS] methods, hierarchical clustering, random forest models, lasso regression, multilevel models).
Global incidence and mortality rates of cancer by national socioeconomic development
Team, collaborators, and related links
Principal Investigator: Salvatore Vaccarella, IARC
Maxime Large, IARC
Marzieh Eslahi, IARC
Freddie Bray, IARC
Valentina Lorenzoni, IARC
Valerie McCormack, IARC
Ophira Ginsburg, National Cancer Institute’s Center for Global Health, USA
This work area is conducted in collaboration with the IARC project on Maternal Orphans due to Cancer Deaths: Global Estimates.
Selected publications
Singh D, Vignat J, Lorenzoni V, Eslahi M, Ginsburg O, Lauby-Secretan B, et al. (2022). Global estimates of incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in 2020: a baseline analysis of the WHO Global Cervical Cancer Elimination Initiative. Lancet Glob Health. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00501-0 PMID:36528031
Lorenzoni V, Chaturvedi AK, Vignat J, Laversanne M, Bray F, Vaccarella S (2022). The current burden of oropharyngeal cancer: a global assessment based on GLOBOCAN 2020. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 31(11):2054–62. https://doi.org/10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-22-0642 PMID:36173880
Singh D, Vaccarella S, Gini A, De Paula Silva N, Steliarova-Foucher E, Bray F (2022). Global patterns of Hodgkin lymphoma incidence and mortality in 2020 and a prediction of the future burden in 2040. Int J Cancer. 150(12):1941–7. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.33948 PMID:35080783
Lortet-Tieulent J, Georges D, Bray F, Vaccarella S (2020). Profiling global cancer incidence and mortality by socioeconomic development. Int J Cancer. 147(11):3029–36. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.33114 PMID:32449164
Vaccarella S, Bray F (2020). Are U.S. trends a barometer of future cancer transitions in emerging economies? Int J Cancer. 146(6):1499–502. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.32485 PMID:31162837
Fidler MM, Vaccarella S, Bray F (2019). Social inequalities in cancer between countries. In: Vaccarella S, Lortet-Tieulent J, Saracci R, Conway DI, Straif K, Wild CP, editors. Reducing social inequalities in cancer: evidence and priorities for research (IARC Scientific Publications No. 168). Lyon, France: International Agency for Research on Cancer; pp. 43–52. Available from: https://publications.iarc.fr/580.
Vaccarella S, Laversanne M, Ferlay J, Bray F (2017). Cervical cancer in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean and Asia: regional inequalities and changing trends. Int J Cancer. 141(10):1997–2001. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.30901 PMID:28734013
Vaccarella S, Franceschi S, Zaridze D, Poljak M, Veerus P, Plummer M, et al. (2016). Preventable fractions of cervical cancer via effective screening in six Baltic, central, and eastern European countries 2017–40: a population-based study. Lancet Oncol. 17(10):1445–52. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1470-2045(16)30275-3 PMID:27567054
Vaccarella S, Lortet-Tieulent J, Plummer M, Franceschi S, Bray F (2013). Worldwide trends in cervical cancer incidence: impact of screening against changes in disease risk factors. Eur J Cancer. 49(15):3262–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejca.2013.04.024 PMID:23751569
Fidler MM, Bray F, Vaccarella S, Soerjomataram I (2017). Assessing global transitions in human development and colorectal cancer incidence. Int J Cancer. 140(12):2709–15. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.30686 PMID:28281292